Thursday, March 17, 2022
HomeForexWeekly FX Market Recap: Mar. 7 – 11

Weekly FX Market Recap: Mar. 7 – 11


The battle in Ukraine was the primary focus as soon as once more, so merchants as soon as once more needed to stability developments there with rising inflation fears and central financial institution expectations.

Notable Information & Financial Updates:

China reviews highest each day tally of COVID-19 infections since pandemic started

Swiss Nationwide Financial institution says they’re able to intervene in Swiss franc if energy persists

EU introduced on Tuesday that it goals to chop dependence on Russian fuel by nearly 80% this 12 months

Nickel costs double to report $100,000 a ton on Tuesday, buying and selling suspended in London

U.S. authorities broadcasts embargo on Russian oil and fuel on Wednesday

RBA Governor Lowe says its believable the money price will rise later this 12 months

The Ukrainian navy has agreed to a 12-hour ceasefire with Russia on Wednesday

EIA: U.S. oil stockpiles fell 1.9M barrels final week; oil jumps after UAE says it’s dedicated to OPEC+ provide pact, won’t increase output by itself

No progress on Ukraine ceasefire in Lavrov-Kuleba assembly on Thursday

Russia’s Putin sees ‘constructive shifts’ in talks with Ukraine on Friday

Intermarket Weekly Recap

Dollar, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10YR Yield, Bitcoin Overlay 1-Hour

Greenback, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10YR Yield, Bitcoin Overlay 1-Hour

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine topped market tales as soon as once more, having a fairly comparable affect on the monetary markets as final week. Due to this we noticed weak spot early within the week for equities and crypto, whereas oil, gold and the U.S. greenback noticed inexperienced on Monday and Tuesday.

Arguably, the largest short-term catalyst of the week got here on Wednesday as a ceasefire was introduced in Ukraine to permit refugees to evacuate. Diplomatic talks between Ukrainian and Russian international ministers, presumably including to optimism on the state of affairs.

These occasions correlated with the autumn in oil, gold and different commodity costs, whereas equities and crypto managed to make some features through the Wednesday U.S. session.

Sadly for these in search of peace and a few risk-on market habits, these situations didn’t maintain on Thursday as no progress within the ceasefire talks have been reported. This appears to have been the primary headline of the day, prompting a transfer decrease in equities and crypto, whereas commodities solely halted their slide decrease.

By way of bond yields, we noticed a virtually a method transfer to the upside this week, doubtless a mirrored image of market fears that inflation might worsen. This isn’t solely doubtless because of the rising oil costs, but additionally the lengthy string of stronger-than-expected inflation knowledge factors launched this week from across the globe.

In FX, there didn’t look like a lot when it comes to sturdy directional strikes, however volatility did stay comparatively elevated. The large winner of the week appears to be the euro after a Monday dip.

There doesn’t appear to be a transparent direct catalyst for the broad bullish transfer, so it’s doubtless this was some mixture of shorts taking some revenue forward of the European Central Financial institution financial coverage assembly and/or broadly oversold situations on the euro generally.

The U.S. greenback and the Canadian greenback battled it out for the second and third place spots.  Protected haven flows and FOMC price hike expectations subsequent week doubtless lifted the Dollar, whereas rising oil costs and a powerful Canadian jobs report had merchants shopping for up the Loonie forward of the weekend.

USD Pairs

Overlay of USD Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart

Overlay of USD Pairs: 1-Hour Foreign exchange Chart

U.S. shopper credit score rose by $6.8B in January

U.S. mortgage purposes bounce 8.5% as Russia’s conflict pressures charges

U.S. commerce deficit elevated 9.4% in January to $89B; Exports fall 1.5% vs. an 1.8% enhance in imports

The U.S. shopper worth index jumped 7.9% y/y following a 7.5% y/y learn in January

Weekly U.S. preliminary jobless claims tick as much as 227K vs. 216K the week earlier than

College of Michigan prelim shopper sentiment: 59.7 in March vs. 61.4 forecast; lowest since 2011

U.S. Senate permitted $13.6B support package deal for Ukraine

GBP Pairs

Overlay of GBP Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart

Overlay of GBP Pairs: 1-Hour Foreign exchange Chart

U.Okay. home costs rise at quickest price in 15 years, says Halifax

U.Okay. BRC retail gross sales enhance by 2.7% y/y in Feb due to furnishings and residential equipment demand

U.Okay. salaries rise as competitors for employees stays scorching

U.Okay. GDP expanded by 0.8% in January vs. anticipated 0.1% progress and -0.2% fall in December

U.Okay. items commerce deficit widened from 12.4B GBP to 26.5B GBP

U.Okay. shopper inflation expectations superior from 3.2% to 4.3% in Feb.

EUR Pairs

Overlay of EUR Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart

Overlay of EUR Pairs: 1-Hour Foreign exchange Chart

German manufacturing unit orders rose 1.8% m/m in January vs. 2.8% m/m in December

Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence plunges to -7.0 in March from +16.6 in February

GDP up by 0.3% and employment up by 0.5% within the euro space in This autumn 2021

Germany industrial manufacturing unexpectedly accelerates from 1.1% to 2.7% in Jan

The European Central Financial institution introduced plans to wind down stimulus in Q3 2022, prior to deliberate and anticipated, if financial situations permit

Germany shopper worth index: +5.1% y/y; +0.9% m/m

CHF Pairs

Overlay of CHF Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart

Overlay of CHF Pairs: 1-Hour Foreign exchange Chart

Current safe-have flows have pushed the franc larger towards the euro; Swiss Nationwide Financial institution surprises the markets with a renewed pledge to stem franc’s rise

Swiss unemployment price ticked decrease to 2.5% in February vs. 2.6% in January

CAD Pairs

Overlay of CAD Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart

Overlay of CAD Pairs: 1-Hour Foreign exchange Chart

Canada commerce surplus of C$2.6B in January vs. C$1.6B deficit in December

Canada provides 337K jobs in February; the unemployment price falls to five.5% from 6.2%

Canada capability utilization in This autumn 2021: 82.9% vs. 82.2% forecast

NZD Pairs

Overlay of NZD Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart

Overlay of NZD Pairs: 1-Hour Foreign exchange Chart

New Zealand manufacturing gross sales quantity rose 8.2% in This autumn 2021

New Zealand manufacturing index improved in February to 53.6 from 52.3 in January

New Zealand meals costs rose 6.8% y/y in February, an 11-year excessive

AUD Pairs

Overlay of AUD Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart

Overlay of AUD Pairs: 1-Hour Foreign exchange Chart

Australian ANZ job commercial rebounded by 8.4% after earlier 0.7% drop

Australia NAB enterprise situations (up 7 factors to +9) and confidence (up 8 factors to +13) enhance in February

Australian PM Morrison to declared a nationwide emergency on Wednesday attributable to flooding

Australia shopper confidence index fell 4.2% to 96.6 in March – Westpac

Westpac-Melbourne Institute shopper sentiment index fell by -4.2% in March vs. a -1.3% dip in February, doubtless attributable to excessive inflation and flooding considerations

Reserve Financial institution of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe stays obscure on subsequent price hike

JPY Pairs

Overlay of Inverted JPY Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart

Overlay of Inverted JPY Pairs: 1-Hour Foreign exchange Chart

Japan’s wages up by 0.9% in Jan, the primary progress in 5 months

Japan financial institution lending progress slows to a decade-low of 0.4% y/y as pandemic-induced pressure eases

Japan’s GDP progress in Oct.-Dec. downgraded to 4.6% annualized vs. an initially reported 5.4%

Japan is unlikely to slip into stagflation says senior BOJ official Seiichi Shimuzu

Japan wholesale worth inflation sees greatest spike in 41 years (+9.3% y/y) in February

Japan Enterprise Circumstances Index fell -7.5 factors in Q1 2022 vs. +9.6 factors in This autumn 2021

Japan Family spending fell -1.2% m/m in January attributable to Omicron restrictions

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